The Breakpoint Has Already Passed

The supply disruption has taken on a life of its own, regardless of what happens next

There was a narrow window where a deal looked possible. It closed overnight. What followed was not only escalation, but a shock to the global energy system that now has a life of its own.

At several points in recent history, markets have been forced to reprice risk quickly. What we are witnessing now feels different, not because of the speed of the move,…